A recent study conducted by Michigan State University found that as many as one-third of Americans may be at risk of not being able to afford water by the year 2020. The objective of the study was to highlight the likely impact of increasing water prices on communities with higher concentrations of low-income households. Of the ten states at “high risk,” a majority are located in the south east. Tennessee is ranked sixth.
The study took into account the average monthly usage by household (12,000 gallons in 2014), the average cost of that amount of water and the salary necessary to afford that amount of water. The study used 4.5% of median household income (MHI), a figure established by the EPA to determine affordability: “Households for whom water bills comprise 4.5% or more of MHI face potential affordability issues.”[1] The study then projected the figure out using an average annual water rate increase of six percent. By the year 2020, they estimated a total increase of forty-one percent (annual rate increases plus additional percentages for system maintenance and repairs) and an average monthly cost of $169.20 (from a starting rate of $120 based on 2014 records). This equates to a salary of $45,120 annually being necessary to afford water at that rate. The report estimates that “41 million American households will fall below the affordability benchmark.”[2]
The biggest factor affecting people’s ability to afford water is that the cost of water will rise more than income levels. Researchers looked at census reports to determine areas of concentration where incomes would be at or below the $45K level and broke the areas down into “high risk” and “at-risk.” “At-risk” areas have high concentrations of households with median incomes of less than $45,120. “High-risk” areas have incomes tracking between $32,000 and $45,120. Tennessee comes in ranked sixth “with 24.7 percent of the state’s tracts considered ‘high-risk’ and tenth at 34.4% for being ‘at-risk.’“[3]
The combined factors of drought, aging infrastructure, and decreasing urban population sizes contribute to this trend and will force local communities to work to find solutions, hopefully before the projections become reality.
[1] Mack, Elizabeth A., and Sarah Wrase. “A Burgeoning Crisis? A Nationwide Assessment of the Geography of Water Affordability in the United States.” PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, Jan. 2017, journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0169488#sec007.
[2] Mojica, Adrian. “Study: Tennessee, Kentucky among States That Could Face a Water Crisis by 2020.” WZTV, May 2017, fox17.com/news/local/study-tennessee-kentucky-among-states-that-could-face-a-water-crisis-by-2020.
[3] Mojica, Adrian. “Study: Tennessee, Kentucky among States That Could Face a Water Crisis by 2020.” WZTV, May 2017, fox17.com/news/local/study-tennessee-kentucky-among-states-that-could-face-a-water-crisis-by-2020.
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